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Promise Audit · 2015 – 2026

What Musk said. What reality did.

Every claim plotted on the market line when it was made. Dashed arcs → promised date; solid arcs → delivery.

Years

Select a claim on the timeline
or in the list to inspect it.

Method. Compiled June 2026 from primary quotes (tweets, earnings calls, keynotes) and reporting by Electrek, Reuters, CNBC, TechCrunch, Jalopnik, Aerospace America, elonmusk.today and SEC filings. Each entry links its source. Statuses distinguish predictions that slipped (most of them), commitments quietly dropped, claims still pending, and the small set that were demonstrably untrue when stated or legally sanctioned.

Market data. TSLA line uses approximate split-adjusted monthly closes for context, not trading precision. SpaceX is private: the line steps through funding-round and share-sale valuations ($12B in 2015 → $1.25T after the Feb 2026 xAI merger). Correlation shown here is temporal coincidence, not proven intent — except where a regulator or court has ruled.

Reuse. The full dataset lives in data.json alongside this file.

v1.4.0 · 2026-06-09